Climate: Media speculates on Maui Fires
- Maui Wildfires: Climate Change Is Wrecking Former Havens – Bloomberg (The author has a BA in journalism and is an editor)
- Column: If the Maui fires don’t wake up Americans to the climate emergency, nothing will – LA Times (The author has a BA in journalism and women’s studies, and is a television critic for the LA Times)
There has been no official determination of the cause of the fire.
There was a drought in Hawaii (and especially on Maui) and they had high winds initially said to be from a hurricane 500 miles to the south of the islands. A Bloomberg writer says this fire was caused by climate change even though no one has yet determined the cause of the fire. An LA Times TV critic blames this on climate change and says we must take immediate action, but does not say what that action is.
The fire may have been caused by multiple blown down power lines, or other utility equipment failures, just like the Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise, CA fire which was caused by defective PG&E equipment.
Let’s practice factfulness.
Fire Risks
Fire danger at Lahaina has been known for a long time: Hawaii Officials Were Warned Years Ago That Maui’s Lahaina Faced High Wildfire Risk (msn.com)
The past six months were said to be cooler than normal, with normal precipitation, leading to enhanced growth of non-native, highly flammable grasses, which dried out this summer with hot temperatures. (A season of rainfall does not necessarily end a drought.) During the past six months, the temperatures were reportedly slightly below normal (see link, and NOAA chart, below).
Does Hawaii Have Droughts?
Here’s what the University of Hawaii’s Climate Data Portal has to say:
Drought is a regular and natural component of the climate in Hawaiʻi with severe effects across many sectors statewide. A Century of Drought in Hawai‘i – Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal (hawaii.edu)
From their chart, there have been 11 droughts, prior to the current drought, in the past 100 years. The 2 longer drought periods were in the past 20 years including the current drought.
Cause of the Fire is Unknown
Once the fire’s starting location and source of ignition has been determined, then the fire experts will be able to determine the likely cause.
CBS News notes a combination of factors – the drought, the hurricane to the south, the Red Flag Warning, and that 85% of fires are started by humans.
In a retrospective, CNN says many agencies knew about the fire dangers on Maui but addressing them was the lowest priority.
Power lines are a known cause of fires in Hawaii, and the utility did not have plans to shut off power pre-emptively, as is now done in California and Oregon, in advance of wind events but HEC was aware of this method being used elsewhere.
Near the end of this Hawaii News Now video report, they say the state’s Land’s department (DLNR) has gone to the state’s Supreme Court seeking to overturn a lower Court ruling that has limited the amount of water drawn by water utilities on Maui. The report says environmentalists had sued the state to restrict the permitted amount of water drawn, and this resulted in water utilities running out of water to fight the fires. The Sierra Club disputes this claim. There were many reports that water ran out, so that part of the story is not in dispute.
The State’s AG is launching an investigation into the causes and who is responsible.
“We knew that there wildfires were a problem in Maui, we knew that for certain, and the government there is aware of it, the utility there is aware of it, the state is aware of it,” Potter said, “and yet we have not taken the actions that are necessary that we must take now.”
HECO has a 500-page climate adaptation and resiliency plan docket sitting before the PUC for more than a year now.
“We had not prioritized that fire mitigation plan,” Potter said, “And that ultimately should have incorporated best practices from the mainland utilities such as California. We hadn’t de-energized even when these power poles were toppling, and that there’s a definite need for a policy to address that.”
Finally, the Washington Post points out there were a wide variety of factors contributing to the Maui fires amid some hand waving: Maui fires not just due to climate change but a ‘compound disaster’ – The Washington Post
- Maui Fire: Hawaii Officials Warned Years Ago Lahaina Was at Risk – WSJ
- Maui wildfires: Hawaiian Electric shares dive 35% following class action lawsuit (cnbc.com)
- Footage shows exact moment first Hawaii wildfire erupted as likely cause identified (msn.com)
Much of the media blamed climate change: The climate link to Maui’s tragic wildfire (axios.com) (The author has in the past written for climate advocacy groups. He has no publicly available biographical information other than the vague “reports on climate issues” summary on the bylines.)
No one has yet identified the cause or causes of the fire. For creative media writers to blame these fires 100% on climate change is pre-mature, speculative and likely to be wrong – we know there were multiple risk factors in play and if climate was one of those factors, what percent did it account for?
August 24 – 26: Hawaiin Electric Company
- Hawaiian Electric shares slide after Maui County sues for damages over deadly wildfires (cnbc.com) – notes the NWS issued a Red Flag warning for high winds and HEC did not de-energize power lines. The evidence is accumulating towards power lines felled by wind and falling trees. Separately, a local fire department had responded to an early wildland fire, declared is out, and then left – as the winds picked up embers from that fire and restarted.
- Bare electrical wire and leaning poles on Maui were possible cause of deadly fires (msn.com)– their utility poles “were not close to meeting a 2002 national standard. Old, wooden poles were said to be leaning, all over the island, for years, and would not withstand winds.
- Many had no warning and no way to escape deadly Maui fires, those who dodged a barricade survived | News | kimt.com Officials closed and barricaded the only escape routes – and forced those fleeing to drive into Lahaina.
- It appears the ClimateCrisis is the direct cause of incompetence. The solution to that, of course, is more government!
Water Access
Water access and use conflicts mount with Lahaina fire | KHON2
Here’s how Gov. Josh Green addressed water access at a Monday press conference: “One thing that people need to understand, especially from far away, is there has been a great deal of water conflict on Maui for many years. It’s important that we’re honest about this. People have been fighting against the release of water to fight fires.”
Even if that turns out not to be a true claim, it points to confusion over water access rules on Maui.
Emergency Management
The initial fire was declared 100% contained – until it wasn’t. This may have led to confusion or complacency.
Maui has an extensive emergency warning system, including emergency alert sirens. They were never used during this emergency.
The Emergency Management Director was attending a conference (M-W) on Oahu. The fires burned through Maui on Tuesday. The Director did not authorize the siren usage, and returned to Maui on Wednesday. The EM Director has since resigned, effective immediately.
Wildfire Deaths History
See Maui wildfires: What are the deadliest wildfires in US history? | Reuters
The worst was 1,152 did in 1871. Adjusted for the change in population (if it makes sense to do that), that would be similar to 11,000 people dying in a single fire, today. Other fires, causing more deaths than the Maui fire, occurred in 1881, 1894, and 1918. Since then, building standards and fire prevention measures have greatly evolved.
Long History of Cities Burning Down
There is a long history of entire cities burning to the ground. See List of town and city fires – Wikipedia
In 2020, a fast moving wildfire burned down the towns of Talent and Phoenix, Oregon.
Climate Data
Precipitation for calendar year 2023
In the normal range (Data from NOAA)
Temperatures for calendar year 2023
On the slightly low side of normal
