The article’s claims is a stretch when all alcoholic drink consumption has been in a decline for some time: Beer sales are declining in America. The real culprit is surprising—and strange.

“The Bud Light boycott was just the beginning. The right-wing battle against America’s favorite beverage has become deeper—and weirder.”

The reality is consumption peaked in the 1980s, and has gone down in the past decade, particularly with new messaging that even consumption in moderation is bad for health. This has nothing to do with politics – but leave to a reporter with a bias to cherry pick their way through the data and history, and then ignore the Gallup findings – which he selectively quotes.

Facts

• Alcoholic drink consumption, per person, peaked in the 1980s.
• Awareness of alcohol and health issues, a change in the legal drinking age to age 21, and issues with drunk driving may have started the downward trend.
• Then remained fairly stable during the 1990s and 2000s.
• Gen Z consumers, though, are consuming less alcohol as non-alcoholic beverages have seen an increase in consumption per person. In other words, more choices, more competition for the drinks market. 36% say they do not consume any alcohol – or stated the other way, 64% consume alcohol, down from an estimated 70-80% of persons age 18-34 in the 1980s. Additionally, heavy “binge drinking” was common in the 1980s on college campuses but is less common today.
• Even among millennials, there has been a reduction in consumption – with 25-30% now saying they no longer drink alcohol, an increase from 20% just 15 years ago.
• Beer drinking is down a few percent per person.

The above article claims this is a Trump effect by cheery picking the end of a long-term trend:

Last month, Gallup published its annual report on U.S. drinking habits. For nearly 90 years, dating back to 1939, the firm has been taking stock of Americans and the good old American pastime.

Its findings this time were stunning. The percentage of American adults who reported drinking any alcohol at all had cratered to just 54 percent, the lowest number ever recorded in those nine decades of data gathering. That’s almost 10 points below the 80-year average of 63 percent.

The demographic leading the charge? Self-identified Republicans. Only 46 percent of Republicans reported drinking at all in the past year. That’s a decline of almost a third since 2023, when the Bud Light boycott began. More than half are off the sauce altogether.

The author acknowledges there might be non-political reasons for the drop, but then immediately quotes one person to dispute that.

From the Gallup survey the article is based on:

Consumption largely peaked as the huge “baby boom” cohort became young adults in the late 1970s/early 1980s.

Today, with a fertility rate of 1.6, the incoming youth cohort is smaller than in the past, drinks less than past generations did at this age, and this plays a role in overall consumption.

Change in Health Recommendations Regarding Alcohol Consumption

The consecutive declines in Americans’ reported drinking the past few years are unmatched in Gallup’s trend and coincide with recent research indicating that any level of alcohol consumption may negatively affect health. This has been a sharp reversal from previous recommendations that moderate drinking could offer some protective benefits.

A majority of Americans now view drinking alcohol as bad for one’s health.

Young adults began moving away from alcoholic beverages a decade ago, long before Trump was President.

Americans’ drinking habits are shifting amid the medical world’s reappraisal of alcohol’s health effects. After decades of relative steadiness in the proportion of U.S. adults who drink, Gallup has documented three consecutive years of decline in the U.S. drinking rate as research supporting the “no amount of alcohol is safe” message mounts. Compounding the challenge for companies that sell alcohol, drinkers now appear to be dialing back how much they drink, as well.

The writer of the Slate article, above, had to cherry pick his way through this to conclude the drop in drinking is caused by Trump – and using a weak correlation without causation effect.